In July 2025, the price of rebar showed a fluctuating upward trend.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price of rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) was 3,304.1 yuan/ton in late July 2025, up 143.5 yuan/ton, or 4.5%, from mid-July, and expanding by 2.8 percentage points from the previous period. According to data from Shanghai Steel Union, the rebar price index rose 6.14% month-over-month in July.
The rise in rebar prices, despite the traditional off-season, was primarily influenced by multiple factors, including policies, demand, and costs:
On the one hand, the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized in July the need to address low-price, disorderly competition, leading to market expectations that the steel industry would eliminate obsolete production capacity, optimize supply-side reforms, and boost steel prices. Furthermore, with the commencement of hydropower projects along the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, demand for rebar is expected to increase. A series of macroeconomic policies have boosted market confidence.
Although July is traditionally a low season for demand, the steady progress of infrastructure projects in some regions and expectations of marginal improvement in the real estate market have improved market sentiment regarding rebar demand.
In late July, coking coal prices rose by 27.9% month-over-month, while coke prices rose by 11.4%, pushing up steel mills' production costs.
Also, despite volatile export ore prices, the high inventory levels of high-grade ore, coupled with the high blast furnace operating rates at steel mills and a hot metal output of 2.4229 million tons per day, have led to strong demand for raw materials.
Rebar prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and strengthen in August, but close attention needs to be paid to the enforcement of crude steel production restrictions, the impact of hot weather on construction, and raw material price fluctuations. Future rebar price trends will depend on the actual recovery of demand.
